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Statistics

Overarching GOALS

CSAFE is committed to leveraging statistical methods developed in one field of application for use in forensic science, as appropriate. Through research methods, CSAFE professionals are assessing reliability of categorical conclusions, investigations of properties of machine learning algorithms, and studies of score-based likelihood ratios to inform multiple domains.

stern-hal

Hal S. Stern

Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor and Chancellor's Professor, Co-Director of CSAFE

University of California, Irvine

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Danica Ommen

Assistant Professor

Iowa State University

Additional Team Members

Naomi Kaplan-Damry nkapland@uci.edu

Alicia Carriquiry
alicia@iastate.edu

Heike Hofmann hofmann@iastate.edu

Steve Lund (NIST)
steven.lund@nist.gov

focus Areas

CSAFE researchers are using traditional logistic models to study the performance characteristics of individual examiners and individual examples, as well as aggregate performance characteristics for the population. We are aiming to learn about the efficiency of individual examiners and about the population of examiners.

In many forensic science disciplines, especially those involving pattern comparisons, the most common approach to analysis of the evidence involves a series of binary or categorical decisions regarding the evidence. For example, in latent print analysis an examiner initially decides about whether the latent print has enough information to make a formal identification, or not enough value (i.e., there is not enough information to perform the comparison). Following this, assuming the print is of value, the examiner will reach a final decision that is again expressed in categorical terms (e.g., identification, inconclusive, exclusion). There is currently considerable discussion about the role of likelihood ratios in the analysis of forensic evidence. The ENFSI guidelines endorse this approach. Ongoing discussion about the next steps in forensic pattern evidence analysis in the United States however suggests maintaining the focus on categorical outcomes, with perhaps more potential outcomes allowed (a 5-point or larger scale). To date evaluations of forensic examiners have focused primarily on binary decisions (did they correctly identify a pair of known matching items?). There is a need for developing statistical approaches to reliability and validity studies using categorical scales.  

The presumed setup for this research project is that data has been collected from a number of forensic science examiners on a number of cases or examples. For each examiner–example pair we have the outcome of the analysis (e.g., determination of value, conclusion with respect to source) on a categorical scale. There may also be data available about characteristics of the examiners and about characteristics of the examples. As a starting point for the research we will consider analyses treating each category as a binary response. This would, for example, in the latent print case, correspond to studying the probability of a VID (value for identification) decision (yes/no) and assessing variation in the decision-making process across examiners and examples. This can be done with traditional logistic models or with the closely related item response theory models used in educational testing. Using such models allows one to obtain information about the performance characteristics of individual examiners (and individual examples) as well as aggregate performance characteristics for the population. The next stage of the analysis will consider generalizations of these models to handle the multiple-category variables.  This will focus on multinomial models, including those developed by considering underlying latent continuous variables. The aim of these models, like those described above, is to learn about the efficiency of individual examiners and about the population of examiners.

The primary goals of the proposed project are to (1) explore the strengths and weaknesses of score-based likelihood ratios (SLRs) for quantifying the value of evidence from a statistical perspective, (2) explore the strengths and weaknesses of SLRs from the perspective of forensic evidence interpretation, and (3) determine whether it is possible to develop a framework of evidence interpretation which exploits the strengths of SLRs for impression and pattern evidence. This project would greatly benefit the forensic science community by providing those who wish to use SLRs with a list of recognized strengths and weaknesses, with supporting reasons, as well as a framework for expressing conclusions regarding the SLR results.

Score-based likelihood ratios (SLRs) are becoming increasingly popular for analyzing impression and pattern evidence due to the inherent difficulties in computing Bayes Factors. Some researchers have argued against the use of SLRs within a Bayesian decision paradigm for philosophical reasons, often citing a lack of coherence. Additionally, these researchers might argue that SLRs don’t actually approximate a Bayes Factor, and worse still, there is no indication of how far an SLR may be from the corresponding Bayes Factor. Other researchers have argued that there is no issue with using score-based likelihood ratios in a Bayesian decision paradigm as long as that SLR is accompanied by a measure of calibration of the SLR system. Regardless of which viewpoint one takes, the fact remains that very little research has been published on whether or not SLRs have any validity for quantifying the value of forensic evidence. The primary goals of the proposed project are to (1) explore the strengths and weaknesses of SLRs for quantifying the value of evidence from a statistical perspective, (2) explore the strengths and weaknesses of SLRs from the perspective of forensic evidence interpretation, and (3) determine whether it is possible to develop a framework of evidence interpretation which exploits the strengths of SLRs for impression and pattern evidence. Many forensic science researchers and practitioners have a strong desire for quantitative results for impression and pattern evidence to bolster their “subjective” opinions. This project would greatly benefit the forensic science community by providing those who wish to use SLRs with a list of recognized strengths and weaknesses, with supporting reasons, as well as a framework for expressing conclusions regarding the SLR results.

The primary goals of this project are to (1) explore the extent to which violating the assumption of independence affects the performance of the scoring methods and (2) develop machine learning methods for evaluating comparison scores for forensic evidence which can accommodate and/or adjust for the dependency in the data. The proposed research will impact the community by providing more statistically rigorous methods of computing score-based likelihood ratios for impression and pattern evidence.

Pattern and impression evidence results in data that is inherently high-dimensional and difficult to model statistically. Therefore, many researchers have focused on methods of measuring the similarity between two objects instead. This comparison results in a low-dimensional score which is much easier to model. CSAFE researchers have relied on statistical machine learning algorithms to compute the scores. One of the difficulties with these methods is that the pairwise comparison of all the evidential objects results in a set of dependent scores. This is because any of the scores that contain the same object as one of the two in the comparison will be dependent. The difficulty lies in the fact that while machine learning methods do not have any distributional assumptions, most assume independence between the observations in the data. The primary goals of this project are to (1) explore the extent to which violating the assumption of independence affects the performance of the scoring methods and (2) develop machine learning methods for evaluating comparison scores for forensic evidence that can accommodate and/or adjust for the dependency in the data. The proposed research will impact the community by providing more statistically rigorous methods of computing score-based likelihood ratios for impression and pattern evidence. This project builds on the work achieved during the first five years in Project CC, “Statistical and Algorithmic Approaches to Matching Bullets” and in Project EE, “Statistical and Algorithmic Approaches to Shoeprint Analysis,” by critically evaluating the current methods for violations of assumptions and potential areas for correction and improvement before the current methods are deployed in crime labs.

Knowledge Transfer

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Towards a likelihood ratio approach for bloodstain pattern analysis

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Tong Zou

In this work, we explore the application of likelihood ratio as a forensic evidence assessment tool to evaluate the causal mechanism of a bloodstain pattern. It is assumed that there are two competing hypotheses regarding the cause of a bloodstain…

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An Open-Source Implementation of the CMPS Algorithm for Assessing Similarity of Bullets

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Wangqian Ju

In this paper, we introduce the R package cmpsR, an open-source implementation of the Congruent Matching Profile Segments (CMPS) method developed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) for objective comparison of striated tool marks. The functionality of…

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Error Rate Methods for Forensic Handwriting Identification

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Danica Ommen

Presentation is from the 106th International Association for Identification (IAI) Annual Educational Conference

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Measuring Proficiency among Latent Print Examiners: A Statistical Approach from Standardized Testing

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Amanda Luby

This presentation is from the 74th Annual Scientific Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences

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Ensemble of SLR systems for forensic evidence

Type: Research Area(s):

Published: 2022 | By: Federico Veneri

Machine learning-based Score Likelihood Ratios have been proposed as an alternative to traditional Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor to quantify the value of forensic evidence. Scores allow formulating comparisons using a lower-dimensional metric, which becomes relevant for complex evidence where…

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Likelihood Ratios for Categorical Evidence with Applications to Digital Forensics

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Rachel Longjohn

In forensic investigations, the goal of evidence evaluation is often to address source-/identity-based questions in which the evidence consists of two sets of observations: one from an unknown source tied to a crime and the other from a known source.…

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Center for Statistics and Application in Forensic Evidence Update

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

Published: 2022 | By: Alicia Carriquiry

The information below highlights a sample of current research initiatives led by the CSAFE team. Additional accomplishments in other forensic science disciplines will be discussed in subsequent issues of Forensic Science Review. Visit the CSAFE website www.forensicstats.org to learn more…

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Reliability for Binary and Ordinal Data in Forensics

Type: Research Area(s):

Published: 2022 | By: Hina Arora

Forensics studies of feature-based comparison decisions typically focus on the accuracy and reliability the decisions. Decisions can be reports in the form of binary conclusions (value / no value) or in the form of ordered categories. In general there is…

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The ASCLD Forensic Research Committee and You: A Collaboration Worth Investigating

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Henry Maynard

This CSAFE webinar was held on November 17, 2022. Presenter: Henry Maynard Committee Chair, ASCLD Forensic Research Committee Chief Scientist in the Office of the Chief Scientist, Defense Forensic Science Center Presentation Description: Over the last few years, the American…


handwriter: a Demonstration and Update on CSAFE Handwriting Analysis

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

Published: 2022 | By: Dr. Alicia Carriquiry

This CSAFE webinar was held on October 18, 2022. Presenters: Alicia Carriquiry Director, CSAFE Distinguished Professor and President’s Chair, Department of Statistics – Iowa State University Stephanie Reinders Research Scientist, CSAFE Presentation Description: Forensic handwriting analysis relies on the principle…


Tutorial on Likelihood Ratios with Applications in Digital Forensics

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This CSAFE webinar was held on September 15, 2022. Presenters: Rachel Longjohn PhD Student - Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine Dr. Padhraic Smyth Chancellor's Professor - Departments of Statistics and Computer Sciences, University of California, Irvine Presentation Description:…


Ensemble SLRs for Forensic Evidence Comparison

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This CSAFE webinar was held on August 25, 2022. Presenter: Danica Ommen Assistant Professor – Department of Statistics, Iowa State University Presentation Description: To strengthen the statistical foundations of forensic evidence interpretation, likelihood ratios and Bayes factors are advocated to…


Likelihood Ratios for Categorical Evidence With Applications in Digital Evidence

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Rachel Longjohn

The following poster was presented at the 74th Annual Scientific Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS), Seattle, Washington, February 21-25, 2022.

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Statistical support for weight of evidence determinations of handwriting evidence

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2021 | By: Danica Ommen

Handwriting analysis is conducted through the expertise of Forensic Document Examiners (FDEs) by visually comparing writing samples. Through their training and years of experience, FDEs are able to recognize critical characteristics of writing to evaluate the evidence of writership. In…

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Ensemble of SLR Systems for Forensic Evidence

Type: Research Area(s): ,

Published: 2022 | By: Federico Veneri

Score-based likelihood ratios (SLR) have been used as an alternative to feature-based likelihood ratios when the construction of a probabilistic model becomes challenging or infeasible [1]. Although SLR has been shown to provide an alternative way to present a numeric…

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Blind Testing in Firearms Examination: Preliminary Results, Benefits, Limitations, and Future Directions

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This CSAFE webinar was held on June 23, 2022. Presenters: Maddisen Neuman Quality / Research Associate, Houston Forensic Science Center   Presentation Description: Open proficiency tests created by external vendors are used to meet accreditation requirements and demonstrate examiner competence;…


Extracting Case-Specific Data from Validation Studies

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This CSAFE webinar was held on May 10, 2022. Presenters: Steve Lund Statistical Engineering Division, NIST Hari Iyer Statistical Engineering Division, NIST Presentation Description: The legal and scientific communities agree that any forensic method or algorithm should undergo validation testing…


Shining a Light on Black Box Studies

Type: Research Area(s): ,

This CSAFE webinar was held on April 22, 2022. Presenters: Dr. Kori Khan Iowa State University Dr. Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University Presentation Description: The American criminal justice system heavily relies on conclusions reached by the forensic science community. In…


Sampling for Forensic Practitioners Short Course

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This three-session short course took place on March 25, April 1, and April 8, 2022. Recordings of completed sessions and practicum materials can be found below. Presenters: Alicia Carriquiry Director of CSAFE Iowa State University Joseph Zemmels Graduate Research Assistant…


Modeling And iNventory of Tread Impression System (MANTIS): The development, deployment and application of an active footwear data collection system

Type: Research Area(s): ,,

This CSAFE webinar was held on March 24, 2022. Presenters: Dr. Richard Stone Iowa State University Dr. Susan Vanderplas University of Nebraska, Lincoln Presentation Description: This webinar details the development, capabilities and successful deployment of the Modeling And iNventory of…


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