Skip to content

Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners Short Course (Summer 2022)

Published: 2022
Primary Author: Hal Stern

Presenter:
Hal Stern
Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor, University of California, Irvine
Chancellor’s Professor in the Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
Co-Director, CSAFE

Presentation Description:
Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science is the first session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners.

Probability is the mathematical language of uncertainty. Probabilities are used to describe the frequency or likelihood of events or to characterize measurement uncertainty. In this first session, we introduce the laws of probability and their application in forensic settings. Specific topics include:

  • Definition and interpretation of probability
  • Basic laws of probability
  • Conditional probability and independence of events
  • Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian statistics
  • Topics are illustrated with examples drawn from forensic science and relevant legal cases.

 

Session One Recording:

Session Two Recording:

Session Three Recording:

Course Materials:
Session One Slides
Session Two Slides
Session Three Slides

Related Resources

Blind Testing in Firearms Examination: Preliminary Results, Benefits, Limitations, and Future Directions

Blind Testing in Firearms Examination: Preliminary Results, Benefits, Limitations, and Future Directions

This CSAFE webinar was held on June 23, 2022. Presenters: Maddisen Neuman Quality / Research Associate, Houston Forensic Science Center   Presentation Description: Open proficiency tests created by external vendors…
Surveying Practicing Firearm Examiners

Surveying Practicing Firearm Examiners

A sample (n = 79) of practicing firearm and toolmark examiners was queried about casework as well as their views about the potential role that statistics might play in future…
Blind testing in firearms: Preliminary results from a blind quality control program

Blind testing in firearms: Preliminary results from a blind quality control program

Open proficiency tests meet accreditation requirements and measure examiner competence but may not represent actual casework. In December 2015, the Houston Forensic Science Center began a blind quality control program…
Extracting Case-Specific Data from Validation Studies

Extracting Case-Specific Data from Validation Studies

This CSAFE webinar was held on May 10, 2022. Presenters: Steve Lund Statistical Engineering Division, NIST Hari Iyer Statistical Engineering Division, NIST Presentation Description: The legal and scientific communities agree…