Skip to content

Subjective Bayesian testing using calibrated prior probabilities

Journal: Brazilian Journal of Probability of Statistics
Published: 2018
Primary Author: Dan J. Spitzner
Research Area: Forensic Statistics

This article proposes a calibration scheme for Bayesian testing that coordinates analytically-derived statistical performance considerations with expert opinion. In other words, the scheme is effective and meaningful for incorporating objective elements into subjective Bayesian inference. It explores a novel role for default priors as anchors for calibration rather than substitutes for prior knowledge. Ideas are developed for use with multiplicity adjustments in multiple-model contexts, and to address the issue of prior sensitivity of Bayes factors. Along the way, the performance properties of an existing multiplicity adjustment related to the Poisson distribution are clarified theoretically. Connections of the overall calibration scheme to the Schwarz criterion are also explored. The proposed framework is examined and illustrated on a number of existing data sets related to problems in clinical trials, forensic pattern matching, and log-linear models methodology.

Related Resources

Is it a True Match? Top k correlations in a database search

Is it a True Match? Top k correlations in a database search

This presentation is from the 76th Annual Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS), Denver, Colorado, February 19-24, 2024.
Graph-Theoretic Techniques for Forensic Image Comparisons

Graph-Theoretic Techniques for Forensic Image Comparisons

This presentation is from the 76th Annual Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS), Denver, Colorado, February 19-24, 2024.
Presumption of Innocence, Probable Cause, and Prior Probability—Bayes Meets Due Process

Presumption of Innocence, Probable Cause, and Prior Probability—Bayes Meets Due Process

This presentation is from the 76th Annual Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS), Denver, Colorado, February 19-24, 2024.
Combining reproducibility and repeatability studies with applications in forensic science

Combining reproducibility and repeatability studies with applications in forensic science

Studying the repeatability and reproducibility of decisions made during forensic examinations is important in order to better understand variation in decisions and establish confidence in procedures. For disciplines that rely…