Skip to content

Subjective Bayesian testing using calibrated prior probabilities

Journal: Brazilian Journal of Probability of Statistics
Published: 2018
Primary Author: Dan J. Spitzner
Research Area: Forensic Statistics

This article proposes a calibration scheme for Bayesian testing that coordinates analytically-derived statistical performance considerations with expert opinion. In other words, the scheme is effective and meaningful for incorporating objective elements into subjective Bayesian inference. It explores a novel role for default priors as anchors for calibration rather than substitutes for prior knowledge. Ideas are developed for use with multiplicity adjustments in multiple-model contexts, and to address the issue of prior sensitivity of Bayes factors. Along the way, the performance properties of an existing multiplicity adjustment related to the Poisson distribution are clarified theoretically. Connections of the overall calibration scheme to the Schwarz criterion are also explored. The proposed framework is examined and illustrated on a number of existing data sets related to problems in clinical trials, forensic pattern matching, and log-linear models methodology.

Related Resources

Tutorial on Likelihood Ratios with Applications in Digital Forensics

Tutorial on Likelihood Ratios with Applications in Digital Forensics

This CSAFE webinar was held on September 15, 2022. Presenters: Rachel Longjohn PhD Student – Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine Dr. Padhraic Smyth Chancellor’s Professor – Departments of…
Ensemble SLRs for Forensic Evidence Comparison

Ensemble SLRs for Forensic Evidence Comparison

This CSAFE webinar was held on August 25, 2022. Presenter: Danica Ommen Assistant Professor – Department of Statistics, Iowa State University Presentation Description: To strengthen the statistical foundations of forensic…
Likelihood Ratios for Categorical Evidence With Applications in Digital Evidence

Likelihood Ratios for Categorical Evidence With Applications in Digital Evidence

The following poster was presented at the 74th Annual Scientific Conference of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS), Seattle, Washington, February 21-25, 2022.
Statistical support for weight of evidence determinations of handwriting evidence

Statistical support for weight of evidence determinations of handwriting evidence

Handwriting analysis is conducted through the expertise of Forensic Document Examiners (FDEs) by visually comparing writing samples. Through their training and years of experience, FDEs are able to recognize critical…