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Journal: National Academy of Sciences

Published: 2024

Primary Author: Michael Rosenblum

Secondary Authors: Chin, E., Ogburn, E., Nishimura, A., Westreich, D., Datta, A., Vanderplas, S., Cuellar, M., Thompson, W.

Type: Publication

Research Area: Forensic Statistics, Implementation and Practice

Guyll et al. (1) make an error in statistical reasoning that could lead judges and jurors in criminal trials to grossly misinterpret forensic evidence. Their error leads to highly inflated claims about the probability that a cartridge case from a crime scene was fired from a reference firearm, typically a firearm found in the possession of a defendant. These claims are being presented in at least one ongoing homicide case (2). We wrote a paper to address this error, summarized here. Some text below is excerpted from (3).

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