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Webinar: Ensemble SLRs for Forensic Evidence Comparison
Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 11:00 am - 12:00 pm CDTFree
CSAFE invites researchers, collaborators, and members of the broader forensics and statistics communities to participate in our Summer 2022 Webinar Series on Thursday, August 25, 2022, from 11:00am-Noon CT. The presentation will be “Ensemble SLRs for Forensic Evidence Comparison.”
Assistant Professor – Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
Federico Veneri Guarch
Graduate Research Assistant – Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
To strengthen the statistical foundations of forensic evidence interpretation, likelihood ratios and Bayes factors are advocated to quantify the value of evidence. Both methods rely on formulating a statistical model, which can be challenging for complex evidence. Machine learning score-based likelihood ratios have been proposed as an alternative in those cases. Under this framework, a (dis)similarity score and its distribution under alternative propositions are estimated using pairwise comparisons, but pairwise comparisons of all the evidential objects result in dependent scores. While machine learning methods may not require distributional assumptions, most assume independence. We introduce a sampling and ensembling approach to remedy this lack of independence. We generate sets where assumptions are met to develop multiple score-based likelihood ratios later aggregated into a final score to quantify the value of evidence.
The webinars are free and open to the public, but researchers, collaborators and members of the broader forensics and statistics communities are encouraged to attend. Each 60-minute webinar will allow for discussion and questions.
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