This event is scheduled to take place on June, 17, 2022. A registration form can be found below.
Session 3 Description:
Session 3: Quantitative Tools for Forensic Evidence is the third session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners.
The National Academies report in 2009 and the PCAST report in 2016 encouraged consideration of quantitative approaches to assessing forensic evidence. In this session, we review two of the most often-suggested quantitative approaches, the two-stage approach and the likelihood ratio (Bayes factor) approach. Specific topics include:
- The two-stage approach to assessing forensic evidence
- The role of statistical tests in assessing the similarity of two samples
- Approaches for assessing the relevance of observed similarities
- Introduction to the likelihood ratio approach
- Definition and interpretation of the likelihood ratio/Bayes factor
- Possible applications to different types of evidence (DNA, trace, pattern)
- Score-based likelihood ratios
- Sensitivity of the likelihood ratio to modeling choices
- Results of studies comparing different ways of expressing source conclusions
Co-Director of CSAFE
Provost, Executive Vice Chancellor, and Chancellor’s Professor – University of California, Irvine
About the Short Course:
Session 3 is the third session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners. Dr. Hal Stern introduces fundamental concepts from probability and statistics –– motivated by forensic issues –– followed by a detailed investigation of how they apply to assess forensic evidence’s probative value. This short course will be held online in three sessions. Each session builds upon the previous one(s) and recordings will be available in the event registrants are unable to attend one or more of the live sessions. Researchers, collaborators, and members of the broader forensics and statistics communities are encouraged to attend. Short course registrants who attend all sessions will receive a certificate of completion.