Session 2 of this three-part CSAFE short course was held on April 9, 2021.
Distinguished Professor in the Department of Statistics, CSAFE Director
Statistical ideas such as sampling, point and interval estimation of population quantities, and hypothesis testing have direct application in forensic science. In this session, we start from fundamental ideas about variability (and its sources) in measurements used in forensic analysis, and discuss methods to ameliorate, quantify, model, and interpret variation and uncertainty in the evaluation of forensic evidence. In more detail, we will:
- Talk about variability and its sources, and introduce ideas such as reproducibility, repeatability, and accuracy.
- Briefly talk about populations and samples, and describe some sampling methods useful in forensic applications.
- Introduce the idea of estimation of population quantities such as means and proportions and of methods to report the uncertainty attached to those estimates.
- Describe how to carry out a test of hypothesis to compare two means and a test of equivalence to compare two means.
- Demonstrate how statistical concepts can be used in the study of current forensic science practice (e.g., design and analysis of black box studies)Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science is the first session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic