Skip to content

Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners Short Course – Session 1

Session 1 of this three-part CSAFE short course was held on March 26, 2021.

Presenter:

Hal Stern
Chancellor’s Professor in the Department of Statistics, CSAFE Co-Director

Presentation Description:

Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science is the first session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners.

Probability is the mathematical language of uncertainty. Probabilities are used to describe the frequency or likelihood of events or to characterize measurement uncertainty. In this first session, we introduce the laws of probability and their application in forensic settings. Specific topics include:

  • Definition and interpretation of probability
  • Basic laws of probability
  • Conditional probability and independence of events
  • Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian statistics
  • Topics are illustrated with examples drawn from forensic science and relevant legal cases.

Related Resources

Forensic Toolmark Comparisons

Forensic Toolmark Comparisons

Forensic practitioners determine whether two marks were generated by the same tool by observing the 2D images of the marks using a comparison microscope and deciding whether the “surface contours…
Effect of Subclass Characteristics on Congruent Matching Cells (CMC) Algorithm

Effect of Subclass Characteristics on Congruent Matching Cells (CMC) Algorithm

This presentation is a continuation of subclass characteristics present on consecutively manufactured breech face inserts. The objective is to assess manufacturing methods similar to those used by firearm manufacturers. It…
Source Camera Identification with Multi-Camera Smartphones

Source Camera Identification with Multi-Camera Smartphones

An overview of source camera identification on multi-camera smartphones, and introduction to the new CSAFE multi-camera smartphone image database, and a summary of recent results on the iPhone 14 Pro’s.
What’s in a Name? Consistency in Latent Print Examiners’ Naming Conventions and Perceptions of Minutiae Frequency

What’s in a Name? Consistency in Latent Print Examiners’ Naming Conventions and Perceptions of Minutiae Frequency

Fingerprint minutia types influence LPEs’ decision-making processes during analysis and evaluation, with features perceived to be rarer generally given more weight. However, no large-scale studies comparing examiner perceptions of minutiae…