Misuse of statistical method results in highly biased interpretation of forensic evidence in Guyll et al. (2023)

Since the National Academy of Sciences released their report outlining paths for improving reliability, standards, and policies in the forensic sciences (NAS, 2009), there has been heightened interest in evaluating the scientific validity of forensic science disciplines. Guyll et al. (2023) seek to evaluate the validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons. They conducted an experiment to test the accuracy of firearms examiners. They then describe how triers of fact such as a judge or jury in a criminal case, who are initially unbiased and have not yet seen any evidence, should apply the results of their experiment to the case at hand.