Short Course Session 1: Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science

This event was held on March 26, 2021. A recording of the event can be found below.

Session 1 Description:

Session 1: Probability Concepts and their Relevance to Forensic Science is the first session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners. 

Probability is the mathematical language of uncertainty. Probabilities are used to describe the frequency or likelihood of events or to characterize measurement uncertainty. In this first session, we introduce the laws of probability and their application in forensic settings. Specific topics include:

• Definition and interpretation of probability
• Basic laws of probability
• Conditional probability and independence of events
• Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian statistics

Topics are illustrated with examples drawn from forensic science and relevant legal cases.

Presenter:

Hal Stern
Co-Director of CSAFE
Interim Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor and Chancellor’s Professor, University of California, Irvine

About the Short Course:

Session 1 is the first session in the three-session short course, Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners. Dr. Hal Stern and Dr. Alicia Carriquiry introduce fundamental concepts from probability and statistics –– motivated by forensic issues –– followed by a detailed investigation of how they apply to assess forensic evidence’s probative value. This short course will be held online in three sessions. Make sure to register for all three sessions because the content of later sessions builds on material from earlier sessions. Researchers, collaborators, and members of the broader forensics and statistics communities are encouraged to attend. Short course registrants who attend all sessions will receive a certificate of completion.